Electoral College modifications might re-establish Trump’s presidency

Anjali Jain
Electoral College changes add two potential Republican votes and cost two from Democrat states. Getty Images

Preliminary polls indicate that the 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden will likely be just as fiercely contested as the 2020 presidential election, which was among the most contentious and decided in American history. Nonetheless, there are two significant distinctions between 2020 and 2024 that may prove decisive in the contest.

The first is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a comparatively popular third-party candidate, is elected in 2024. Recent national surveys indicate that RFK Jr. may receive up to sixteen percent of the popular vote. By amassing 16% of the vote, RFK Jr. would surpass all other third-party candidates since Ross Perot in 1992 in terms of electoral success.

The second significant alteration in the 2024 contest has been comparatively overlooked. As required by the Constitution, the House of Representatives reapportioned congressional seats among the states in the wake of the 2020 Census. Reapportionments of the House of Representatives result in corresponding adjustments to the Electoral College.

Although the modifications to the 2024 Electoral College map may seem inconsequential at first inspection, they may prove to be crucial for Trump, who benefited substantially from them.

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As a result of the most recent reapportionment, the Electoral College vote totals of thirteen states were altered. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia were the states that lost by one vote. Oregon, Colorado, Florida, Montana, and North Carolina all gained one vote. Texas, for example, acquired two ballots.

In the Electoral College, states leaning Republican gained two votes while states leaning Democratic lost two. However, the adjustments have a far more significant effect than a mere four-vote swing. The modifications enable Trump to secure victory in the 2024 presidential election with a reduced number of states compared to the threshold set in 2020.

In 2020, for instance, had Trump defeated Biden in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia, all of which were states he failed to win, he would have been one vote short of the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to secure an uncontested victory. However, after adjusting for 2024, Trump would possess 272 ballots.

Similarly, having Trump won Georgia and Pennsylvania in 2020, Biden would have retained sufficient ballots to secure the presidency, all else being equal. Based on the 2024 vote tally, Trump would secure the victory with precisely 270 votes in the given situation. Furthermore, the 2024 modifications to the Electoral College apportionment would have had an effect in numerous other circumstances as well. The new Electoral College vote count could potentially impact various scenarios. Upon reviewing the hypothetical situations, it became evident that Trump, and not Biden, would emerge victorious.

Democrats will use the potential success of Trump in 2024, which could be attributed to the modifications made to the Electoral College, as a pretext to intensify their endeavors toward substituting the Electoral College model with a nationwide popular vote system.

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A total of sixteen states, all of which are known for their consistent support of Democratic presidential candidates, have passed legislation mandating that their Electoral College votes be allocated to the candidate who secures the most popular votes on a national level.The legislation, which is a component of an interstate compact agreement, remains in force until the states that are a party to the agreement have 270 Electoral College votes in their possession. The 16 states that are currently party to the agreement hold a collective control over 205 Electoral College votes.The presidential candidate who receives the most votes would emerge victorious under the national popular vote model, irrespective of the losing candidate’s popularity in the overwhelming majority of states. This would result in the national popular vote superseding the will of the state electors in those particular states.

Although the national popular vote proposal may appear more straightforward and equitable at first glance, it has the potential to cause severe consequences for citizens residing in numerous “blue” states and other regions of the country.

The Founding Fathers selected the Electoral College model, in part, to prevent the citizens of the largest states from gaining an excessive amount of power through a national popular vote.
They reasoned that under a national vote system, legislators would eventually disregard the concerns of Americans residing in smaller states and rural areas in favor of urban centers, which are home to the largest voter populations. Given the exponential growth of the United States’ population since the era of its foundation, the concerns expressed by the Founders are more pertinent than ever before.

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Consider the fact that 158 million ballots were cast for the presidency in 2020 as an example. If a popular vote system had been implemented in 2020, the victory of Trump or Biden could have been assured with an estimated 79 million ballots. The aggregate ballot tally for the ten most populous regions

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Hello, I'm Anjali Jain, a passionate writer navigating the dynamic realms of entertainment, politics, and technology. My blog serves as a digital canvas where I explore the intricate threads that weave together these diverse spheres, offering readers a comprehensive and engaging perspective. Entertainment Aficionado: As an avid consumer of all things entertainment, I delve into the worlds of movies, television, music, and more. Through my blog, I share insightful analyses, reviews, and behind-the-scenes glimpses into the ever-evolving landscape of pop culture. Political Explorer: I'm not one to shy away from the complexities of the political arena. From local issues to global affairs, my writings aim to unravel the intricacies of political events, fostering meaningful conversations about the societal impact of policy decisions. Tech Enthusiast: With an insatiable curiosity for technology, I keep my readers abreast of the latest innovations and trends in the tech world. My articles break down complex concepts, making technology accessible and exploring its profound influence on our daily lives. Narrative Architect: Through my writing, I craft narratives that bridge the gap between entertainment, politics, and technology. Each blog post is a journey, offering readers a thought-provoking exploration of the forces shaping our world. Join me in unraveling the stories that define our culture. Connect with me on Facebook, Instagram and X for real-time updates, discussions, and a shared passion for the fascinating intersection of entertainment, politics, and tech.

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