There are three reasons why Joe Biden’s poll numbers are increasing, and one reason why they remain low

Anjali Jain

Since the fourth quarter of 2023, President Joe Biden has been the subject of relentlessly negative poll results. People continue to be concerned about his age, youthful Democratic voters are dissatisfied with his support for Israel, and he continues to be held accountable for high inflation.However, Biden’s polling statistics appear to be gradually increasing. According to a CNBC All-America Economic Survey, Biden and Trump were roughly on par. A poll published last week by Quinnipiac University found the race to be virtually unaltered from February, but still too close to call. Andrew Feinberg, a colleague of mine, reported the previous week that the president has eroded Trump’s lead in a number of swing states. Trump retains a multitude of advantages, as evidenced by the comparatively more ebullient demeanor of his supporters. Simultaneously, Biden has begun to acquire certain structural advantages. Three factors contribute to Biden’s improvement, while one explains why he continues to lag behind Trump.

As I wrote a month ago, Biden’s re-election campaign could not have been more favorable for the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that unemployment remained below 4% in the previous month. Although there was a marginal increase, the quantity of individuals in the labor market, encompassing both those who are employed and those seeking employment, remained unchanged.
Similarly, inflation has arguably remained Biden’s most enduring adversary. Presently, however, hourly wages continue to increase and appear to be surpassing inflation. As a result, individuals are now beginning to experience the gradual decline in inflation that commenced around 2022, as their disposable income has increased.

It appears that individuals are rewarding such performance. Biden’s approval of the economy increased by six percentage points since December, according to a CNBC survey, while the proportion of respondents who said the economy is doing average or poorly decreased from 80% to 75%. Moreover, the survey revealed that a majority of voters believed their financial situation improved during Trump’s presidency, and Republicans are paraphrasing the adage “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” to support this view.
Friday will be a pivotal day for the Biden campaign, as the BLS will release March employment figures.
Democratic voters have come to terms with the Trump vs. Biden contest.

Numerous surveys have demonstrated that the American public is not interested in a rematch between Biden and Trump. A February poll by Monmouth University revealed that almost half of the electorate believed Biden would be replaced as of last month. Beginning last month, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that only 23% of Democratic primary voters were ebullient about the possibility of Biden’s renomination, while twice that number of Republican primary voters were enthusiastic about Trump’s nomination.

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But now, voters are becoming cognizant of the fact that they will be forced to choose between Trump and Biden, despite their wishes to the contrary. This may explain why Biden’s approval increased among certain essential demographics, including Democrats, independents, and individuals with college degrees, according to a CNBC survey. The modification could potentially represent the motives behind voters’ particular responses: historically, Democratic-leaning voters utilized the polling as a means to express their discontent with Biden while the general election was ostensibly a deadlock. Voters likely perceive the election as a binary option at this time.

Despite this, Biden will continue to require greater voter enthusiasm in November if he is to have any hope.
More so, Biden is campaigning.
Throughout a significant portion of the previous year, Biden shifted his attention from campaigning to managing various domestic and foreign policy crises, including negotiations regarding the debt ceiling and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, Biden has initiated a barnstorming campaign strategy. Since his impassioned State of the Union address mere days after Super Tuesday, Biden has directly addressed voters in swing states such as Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada via television advertisements.
Additionally, Biden has raised funds at an astounding rate of speed, which has enabled him to directly counter and maintain funding for television advertisements.

However, despite his progress thus far, there remains a significant red light that could prove challenging for him to overcome.
His approval ratings remain inadequate.
Despite all the favorable developments, Biden continues to confront a distressing actuality: his approval rating remains abjectly low. The Quinnipiac poll revealed that Biden’s approval rating experienced a decline of three percentage points. As indicated by a FiveThirtyEight average, Biden’s approval ratings are not as low as they were in July 2022.

As re-elections often become a referendum on Biden’s performance, it is probable that Trump would possess an advantage in this election. Biden could possibly win with enough support, however, if he reframes the election as a referendum on Trump’s erratic and extremist rhetoric and a contest over reproductive rights.
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Hello, I'm Anjali Jain, a passionate writer navigating the dynamic realms of entertainment, politics, and technology. My blog serves as a digital canvas where I explore the intricate threads that weave together these diverse spheres, offering readers a comprehensive and engaging perspective. Entertainment Aficionado: As an avid consumer of all things entertainment, I delve into the worlds of movies, television, music, and more. Through my blog, I share insightful analyses, reviews, and behind-the-scenes glimpses into the ever-evolving landscape of pop culture. Political Explorer: I'm not one to shy away from the complexities of the political arena. From local issues to global affairs, my writings aim to unravel the intricacies of political events, fostering meaningful conversations about the societal impact of policy decisions. Tech Enthusiast: With an insatiable curiosity for technology, I keep my readers abreast of the latest innovations and trends in the tech world. My articles break down complex concepts, making technology accessible and exploring its profound influence on our daily lives. Narrative Architect: Through my writing, I craft narratives that bridge the gap between entertainment, politics, and technology. Each blog post is a journey, offering readers a thought-provoking exploration of the forces shaping our world. Join me in unraveling the stories that define our culture. Connect with me on Facebook, Instagram and X for real-time updates, discussions, and a shared passion for the fascinating intersection of entertainment, politics, and tech.
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