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Major US Hubs See Sharp Drop in Mexico-Bound Travel
A significant contraction is hitting Mexico's tourism pipeline in 2026. Data for US citizen-originating air passengers from San Francisco, New York City, Phoenix, and Oakland reveal a broad year-on-year decline from January through August.
Combined traffic across these four key markets fell from 1,300,459 to 1,136,898 passengers, representing a 12.6% total decrease. While the downturn is widespread, the impact is geographically uneven, with some cities experiencing persistent monthly losses while others saw early resilience before a late-season crash.
The decline is attributed to a combination of reduced airline capacity, shifting network deployments, and a stronger Mexican peso, which has increased costs for US travelers.
San Francisco Records Steepest Contraction
San Francisco has suffered the most severe blow, recording eight straight months of declining traffic. The downturn accelerated sharply in the spring, with March and April seeing drops of 24.1% and 20.9%, respectively.
The nadir occurred in June, where traffic plummeted 25.9%, falling from 58,140 to 43,063 passengers. By the end of August, the market had shrunk by 17.8% overall, losing 67,971 passengers compared to the previous year.
Persistent Weakness in New York City
New York City mirrors San Francisco’s consistency in decline, also reporting eight consecutive months of losses. While the initial drops in January (4.4%) and February (3.8%) were modest, the trend worsened in April, which saw the sharpest monthly contraction of 16.8%.
Traffic from New York City fell from 375,438 to 341,577 passengers between January and August, a 9.0% contraction. Although August showed a slight recovery trend, it still finished 3.3% below 2025 levels.
Phoenix and Oakland: Divergent Paths to Decline
Phoenix experienced a steady erosion of traffic, with every single month from January to August recording a decline. The most significant shock occurred in March, when passenger numbers plunged 23.0%, dropping from 68,210 to 52,551. Overall, Phoenix saw an 11.0% decrease in traffic.
Oakland followed a different trajectory. The market began 2026 with growth in January (+6.7%) and February (+7.5%). However, this resilience vanished in April, triggering a severe five-month slide. June was the worst month for Oakland, with a 29.6% crash in passenger volume.
Market Analysis: A Geographically Uneven Challenge
This trend does not signal a total collapse of all US travel to Mexico. For instance, Los Angeles bucked the trend, seeing a 4.7% increase during the same period.
The data suggests a targeted weakness in specific metropolitan markets. The combination of airline capacity shifts and economic pressures—specifically currency fluctuations—is creating a fragmented tourism landscape where certain US hubs are significantly underperforming.
Passenger Traffic Comparison (Jan–Aug)
| US Origin Market | Jan–Aug 2025 | Jan–Aug 2026 | Passenger Decline | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 381,066 | 313,095 | −67,971 | −17.8% |
| Oakland | 121,780 | 106,682 | −15,098 | −12.4% |
| Phoenix | 422,175 | 375,544 | −46,631 | −11.0% |
| New York City | 375,438 | 341,577 | −33,861 | −9.0% |
| Combined | 1,300,459 | 1,136,898 | −163,561 | −12.6% |
Detailed Monthly Performance
San Francisco
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 46,000 | 43,202 | −6.1% |
| February | 42,063 | 39,117 | −7.0% |
| March | 52,359 | 39,715 | −24.1% |
| April | 50,191 | 39,706 | −20.9% |
| May | 41,399 | 36,126 | −12.7% |
| June | 58,140 | 43,063 | −25.9% |
| July | 56,396 | 45,503 | −19.3% |
| August | 34,518 | 26,663 | −22.8% |
| Total | 381,066 | 313,095 | −17.8% |
New York City
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 46,143 | 44,119 | −4.4% |
| February | 51,325 | 49,395 | −3.8% |
| March | 51,626 | 46,210 | −10.5% |
| April | 52,597 | 43,756 | −16.8% |
| May | 40,816 | 36,398 | −10.8% |
| June | 41,242 | 36,856 | −10.6% |
| July | 47,833 | 42,428 | −11.3% |
| August | 43,856 | 42,415 | −3.3% |
| Total | 375,438 | 341,577 | −9.0% |
Oakland
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 13,903 | 14,841 | +6.7% |
| February | 14,924 | 16,041 | +7.5% |
| March | 15,319 | 15,464 | +0.9% |
| April | 15,057 | 12,790 | −15.1% |
| May | 13,484 | 10,387 | −23.0% |
| June | 18,666 | 13,148 | −29.6% |
| July | 17,628 | 14,782 | −16.1% |
| August | 12,799 | 9,229 | −27.9% |
| Total | 121,780 | 106,682 | −12.4% |
Phoenix
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 53,448 | 53,222 | −0.4% |
| February | 54,547 | 49,616 | −9.0% |
| March | 68,210 | 52,551 | −23.0% |
| April | 52,264 | 47,308 | −9.5% |
| May | 54,805 | 47,809 | −12.8% |
| June | 55,128 | 50,177 | −9.0% |
| July | 50,298 | 46,628 | −7.3% |
| August | 33,475 | 28,233 | −15.7% |
| Total | 422,175 | 375,544 | −11.0% |
Key Takeaways
- Aggregate Loss: Combined traffic from SF, NYC, Phoenix, and Oakland fell by 12.6% (163,561 passengers).
- Worst Performing Hub: San Francisco saw the sharpest decline at 17.8%.
- Critical Period: March and April 2026 marked a significant acceleration in passenger losses across most markets.
- Market Outlier: Los Angeles showed growth (+4.7%), indicating the slump is not universal across all US cities.
- Primary Drivers: Reductions in airline capacity and a stronger Mexican peso are cited as key pressures.
FAQ
Which US city saw the biggest drop in travel to Mexico? San Francisco experienced the steepest overall contraction, with a 17.8% decline in passenger traffic from January to August.
Did all US cities see a decline in Mexican tourism? No. While San Francisco, NYC, Phoenix, and Oakland saw drops, Los Angeles recorded a 4.7% increase in traffic.
What factors contributed to the decline in passengers? The downturn is linked to reduced airline capacity, changes in airline network deployment, and the impact of a stronger Mexican peso.
