- Since World War II, Russia, according to politicians, poses the gravest threat to European security.However, experts assert that Russia is debilitated by the Ukraine conflict and is incapable of launching an attack against NATO.Analysts believe the Russian president’s true intention is to internally undermine and diminish NATO.
The potential conclusion of the Western world’s period of comparative prosperity and tranquility that has been observed since the conclusion of World War II is imminent.
In March, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, stated that Europe was in a “pre-war” era and that, for the continent’s security, Russia must not defeat Ukraine.
“I wish to avoid any unease, but war is no longer a distant notion,” Tusk stated in an interview with multiple European media organizations. “It is a fact.” “In actuality, it began over two years ago,” the author said, referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This is the latest in a string of progressively dire warnings that the Ukraine conflict may serve as a precursor to a far more extensive hostilities.
In January, leaked German military planning documents envisioned Russia launching a massive offensive in Ukraine in 2024 to capitalize on waning Western support.
According to the documents obtained by Bild, Russia then intends to destabilize its adversaries in the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia through cyberattacks and internal unrest before focusing on NATO members in Eastern Europe.
Not only Germany is not the case. The Polish national security agency estimated late last year that Russia might launch an attack against NATO within three years.
A commitment to mutual defense against aggression is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty among the 32 members of the NATO alliance. Therefore, a conflict involving multiple nuclear-armed states could be sparked by a Russian attack on one member.
However, it is still unknown whether Putin intends to attack NATO and what such an assault might entail.
Putin denied any intention of attacking NATO members in March, labeling such assertions “complete nonsense.”
However, military leaders from the West remain unconvinced. Putin threatened the West with a nuclear strike a month earlier in retaliation for Western support for Ukraine.
Macron, the president of France, recently suggested that NATO could contribute personnel to Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian invasion, to which he made reference.
According to analysts consulted by Business Insider, Russia is incapable of attacking the alliance as a result of the damage caused by the Ukraine conflict.
However, Putin is engaged in a protracted strategy, and the result of the Ukraine conflict and Russia’s persistent attempt to undermine and tarnish NATO will be critical determinants in ascertaining whether Russia initiates hostilities.
Putin intends to undermine NATO.
The West is significantly disadvantaged in comparison to Putin, according to former British military intelligence officer Philip Ingram, who spoke to BI.
Putin, in contrast to Western leaders who anticipate election cycles of approximately four years, governs an authoritarian regime devoid of significant challengers. This allows him to envision decades in the future.
“He does not want, at this moment, a direct confrontation with NATO,” indicated Ingram. “But he thinks in a different way and plans in a different way to we do in the West, and therefore the way NATO countries do.”
“Therefore, his growth objective for the coming year will not be to launch an assault on NATO and NATO countries.” However, he will establish the necessary conditions to do so, said Ingram.
According to analysts such as Ingram, Putin is cognizant of the fact that launching an assault on NATO at this moment would impose an enormous and severe price on Russia. Putin will instead attempt to undermine NATO from within in order to establish vulnerabilities that he can exploit in the future.
Putin will likely escalate Russia’s so-called “hybrid warfare” against NATO nations in order to accomplish this.
“Hybrid warfare frequently transpires in ambiguous regions that lie below the threshold of a conventional war,” as stated by NATO.
“The instruments or tools employed and fused together to unleash hybrid warfare are often difficult to discern, attribute, and corroborate.”
These may consist of disseminating disinformation and conspiracy theories, bolstering extremist parties in specific nations, inciting terror threats, and initiating cyber assaults with the intention of undermining the fundamental structures of Western societies.
“A variety of other military and non-military threats, commonly referred to as hybrid threats,” rather than an invasion, are more likely to pose a threat to NATO from Russia, according to Ruth Deyermond, an expert on the Russian military at King’s College London, who told BI.
One primary objective is to dissuade the United States from its duty to protect its European allies, either by luring it into an additional expensive military endeavor abroad or by causing it to grow weary of the NATO project.
“Therefore, I anticipate that Russia will continue to use every trick and capability in its arsenal to undermine Western unity over the years to come,” RAND Corporation analyst Bryden Spurling told BI.
A clandestine conflict has already commenced.
As some have pointed out, Russia is currently involved in a clandestine conflict with NATO.
A few days ago, a group of British males were charged with carrying out arson attacks on a company with ties to Ukraine on behalf of Russian intelligence. Such is an individual instance of “hybrid warfare” strategies.
Russia has faced allegations in recent months regarding the disruption of GPS aircraft navigation systems in the Baltics and northern Europe. Some contend that this incident may have been executed as part of a “hybrid warfare” operation.
International security professor Robert Dover of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom stated that the question of whether Russia will attack NATO is no longer pertinent. “Russia is already engaged in a meaningful conflict with NATO countries and their allies,” he indicated.
The Ukraine conflict brought to light significant constraints on the military might of NATO. It has been difficult for the alliance to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery projectiles and ammunition.
Amidst the recent cessation of US aid, European NATO nations were unable to provide the necessary contributions to compensate for the deficit. As a consequence, Ukrainian forces were facing a 10-to-1 outfire on critical sections of the front line.
The United States recently remitted the aid, but the RAND analyst Spurling stated that the issues the situation exposed ran far. He stated that Russia may attempt to exploit this weakness if it is not remedied.
“This conflict has exposed how underprepared Western militaries are for war that’s not on their terms,” according to him. “While we maintain that fragility, there is a greater risk that Russia thinks it could chance its arm,” he indicated.
Russia is undermined by the Ukraine conflict.
However, Russia confronts enormous challenges of its own. Its military has been utterly devastated by the invasion of Ukraine. Based on US estimations, the invading force’s pre-war strength of approximately 300,000 men has been decimated or disabled (although that number has since been restored), its arsenal of armored vehicles has been severely depleted, and its commanders have consistently exhibited poor decision-making.
Expert on the Russian military at King’s College London, Deyermond, told BI, “It is difficult to conceive of a near or medium-term scenario in which the Russian government possesses the means to wage another war comparable in magnitude to the Ukraine conflict.”
The repercussions of any prospective assault on NATO would be so catastrophic that they could threaten Putin’s hold on power.
“War with NATO would destroy Russia, as Putin will know very well, and even if he thinks there’s a possibility that the US might not step up to defend a fellow NATO member from a Russian invasion, he shows no sign of wanting to find out by playing nuclear Russian roulette,” according to Deyermond.
Putin, however long it takes, is determined to secure a victory in Ukraine so he can use it as a springboard to strategize Russia’s subsequent offensive, according to Ingram.
Putin will survey the battlefield after Ukraine and be eager to seize additional opportunities to extend Russian influence.
According to Ingram: “He wants the Soviet Union back in the hands of a Russian leader, and that’s his ultimate goal.”
